Ok so over the last year we have seen a 30% drop in grosses. And this week after we lost Joel, Greg, and Carol the show took another blow (this time more suddenly) of 31%. Of course to keep this is perspective, the week after labor day shows do generally lose a little the week after labor day. But to keep this in perspective from the same week after labor day last year to this year the show has still dropped 43% So this weeks gross is down to $492,525. Clearly at those levels even a show like Billy Elliot (especially without the salaries of a Joel, Greg, and Carol) is in trouble. To keep this in perspective: this week the show How to Succeed (a show we know will be running for some time yet) is down 27% in it's gross, and The Lion king is down 18%. However the difference between these two shows abd BETM would be that these two shows dropping is happening at least for the time being in a vacuum persay, and Billy has been showing a consistent trend downwards for a little over the last year through this week when the bottom fell out and the theatre was only averaging filling 57% of it's seats. (http://www.playbill.com/features/articl ... -Sept-5-11)
So here is the Million dollar question (actually quite literally): is the show in trouble, and if so what if anything can the show do to save itself?
Is the show going to fail now?
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ERinVA
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Re: Is the show going to fail now?
I think that what the show is doing to try to save itself is reworking the language in order to attract school groups and hiring lower priced actors. There is already a thread on here about changes to the language that has been attracting quite a bit of discussion.
Ellen
"I don't want people who want to dance; I want people who have to dance.”
-George Balanchine 1904 -1983
To follow the forum's Twitter at http://twitter.com/BEForum, click on the direct link in Applies to All Forums above.
"I don't want people who want to dance; I want people who have to dance.”
-George Balanchine 1904 -1983
To follow the forum's Twitter at http://twitter.com/BEForum, click on the direct link in Applies to All Forums above.
Re: Is the show going to fail now?
Well school groups like Wednesday matinee shows. And It isn't like school groups are avoiding the show entirely. In fact the one Wednesday matinee I went to in march had two rather large school groups (one middle school I knew for sure because I sat by one of the teachers, and the other looked around the same age) and the night before I attended the show where there was a large high school group (from texas if I remember right). I don't think there would be any disagreement from anyone in saying that the problem is deeper than just the use of language. Strong language, actions, and plot lines have always been a common part of Broadway theatre, and with the exception of the two Disney musicals on Broadway (not that it is fair to lump The Lion King and Mary Poppins together since they are both formatted in incredibly different ways, and attract different audiences for different reasons). And really outside of Wednesday Matinees and maybe weekend Matinees, the school group factor has a very small effect. Especially since the audience draw has nothing to do with the attraction of being a "Disney" show which attracts schools for that specific reason.
The problem goes rather throughout the week and across multiple age groups. This kind of drop across the board over an extended period of time and an additional sudden drop is indicative of a long trend and a more sudden occurrence. The trend is clearly that the show has been around, has been seen, and has little draw to new audiences especially the tourist audience base (which especially over the last few decades has become a large part of the success and failure of shows on Broadway vs. regional theatres). The main draw of the show now is the "cult" following that the show has generated with individuals who see the show multiple times and travel specifically for the show, or go to a Broadway show specifically to see Billy Elliot, or a specific Billy(which is of course another discussion that I won't get into that could help the show have a bigger draw for "cult follower" individuals that desire to see a specific performer).
The recent problem (aside from the usual post labor day drop) is clearly the show losing three important big name star figures. Particularly Greg (and Carol could also be included here. But you would be hard pressed to say that Joel had much of a draw by himself). Shows generally either fail or at least suffer when they lose start performers. Which is why for example a couple blocks away the show How to Succeed has made every effort to create draw when the big star (ie. Dan) leaves, by creating two new stars (Darren Criss for a short term engagement, very smart. And the Nick Jonas for a long running, possible ROS contract) entering the role which generates a new found draw for the show. Historically losing stars hurts shows, for example BBB losing Stamos, Producers losing Broderick, Lane, and Beach, H2s in 95 losing Broderick, etc. Some shows like the Producers despite losing draw and enthusiastic ticket sales maintained viability for a few more years. Other shows like BBB only lasted a few weeks. Basically the point is that aside from the cult following of BETM, the cast is full of virtually unknowns.
There is very little at this point that the production company can do to lower cost. Changing the set for a long running show would just cost money, as well as changing most technical aspects (unless of course you want to cut things like the flying in the dream ballet). After the departure of Greg, Joel, and Carol there is very little in cast and crew salaries that can be dropped. In a Broadway show you don't have the option of lower salaries bellow Equity minimums by doing a tiered show or hiring any non- union actors at all (which goes for stage manager and other run crew as well). And you can't reduce the size of the pit or go to a pre recorded track like you could possibly with, for the sake of example, a regional production.
The only practical options of saving this show at this point (that would do enough to help the show) would be to find some actor or actors that by themselves can create new draw to the show. (A cheap example lets say: bringing back a person like Trent as maybe a Tony for example. That right there would at least interest the cult followers that would be thrilled to get the chance to see Trent again on stage) Although, of course the best option would be to find someone at least at the level of Greg, however that then needs to be balanced so that the smaller role of dad doesn't become too central focus over the lead of Billy. On top of that the show needs some sort of new marketing or publicity idea. One of which I touched on early about making the Billy and Michael for the day known ahead of time. This seems to be common place in every Broadway show that I can think of, up until Billy Elliot. At the very least making it known at the beginning of the day so someone that is in new york and possibly has a desire to see a specific Billy can make that determination of whether or not to buy a ticket or even book a flight if he can know at the beginning of the day when he could practically lets say go to TKTS and buy a ticket, who would be performing that night. Beyond that in the publicity sense you could create draw by for example doing a national search for a new Billy or michael. For example Greese did this when looking for their leads, and Glee has done this in search of a new actor. This would first off possibly generate revenue from the broadcasting stand point, as well as make a national audience aware of the potential Billy's, become involved in the selection process, and get to know them and who they are before they are eventually cast. Then there is now a national awareness of the show, and intrigue to see these performers that have been displayed in a series on television. This is a way to remove the "unknown" cast to the general theatre going public that I mentioned earlier, while if done right could bring in additional revenue by itself.
The Third option would be a move of the show off broadway. Smaller theatre, lower rent, smaller staff, less seats to sell, and the ability to pay actors and crew less money. This would significantly lower costs and make the show possibly (once again if done right) more viable for some time to come.
The problem goes rather throughout the week and across multiple age groups. This kind of drop across the board over an extended period of time and an additional sudden drop is indicative of a long trend and a more sudden occurrence. The trend is clearly that the show has been around, has been seen, and has little draw to new audiences especially the tourist audience base (which especially over the last few decades has become a large part of the success and failure of shows on Broadway vs. regional theatres). The main draw of the show now is the "cult" following that the show has generated with individuals who see the show multiple times and travel specifically for the show, or go to a Broadway show specifically to see Billy Elliot, or a specific Billy(which is of course another discussion that I won't get into that could help the show have a bigger draw for "cult follower" individuals that desire to see a specific performer).
The recent problem (aside from the usual post labor day drop) is clearly the show losing three important big name star figures. Particularly Greg (and Carol could also be included here. But you would be hard pressed to say that Joel had much of a draw by himself). Shows generally either fail or at least suffer when they lose start performers. Which is why for example a couple blocks away the show How to Succeed has made every effort to create draw when the big star (ie. Dan) leaves, by creating two new stars (Darren Criss for a short term engagement, very smart. And the Nick Jonas for a long running, possible ROS contract) entering the role which generates a new found draw for the show. Historically losing stars hurts shows, for example BBB losing Stamos, Producers losing Broderick, Lane, and Beach, H2s in 95 losing Broderick, etc. Some shows like the Producers despite losing draw and enthusiastic ticket sales maintained viability for a few more years. Other shows like BBB only lasted a few weeks. Basically the point is that aside from the cult following of BETM, the cast is full of virtually unknowns.
There is very little at this point that the production company can do to lower cost. Changing the set for a long running show would just cost money, as well as changing most technical aspects (unless of course you want to cut things like the flying in the dream ballet). After the departure of Greg, Joel, and Carol there is very little in cast and crew salaries that can be dropped. In a Broadway show you don't have the option of lower salaries bellow Equity minimums by doing a tiered show or hiring any non- union actors at all (which goes for stage manager and other run crew as well). And you can't reduce the size of the pit or go to a pre recorded track like you could possibly with, for the sake of example, a regional production.
The only practical options of saving this show at this point (that would do enough to help the show) would be to find some actor or actors that by themselves can create new draw to the show. (A cheap example lets say: bringing back a person like Trent as maybe a Tony for example. That right there would at least interest the cult followers that would be thrilled to get the chance to see Trent again on stage) Although, of course the best option would be to find someone at least at the level of Greg, however that then needs to be balanced so that the smaller role of dad doesn't become too central focus over the lead of Billy. On top of that the show needs some sort of new marketing or publicity idea. One of which I touched on early about making the Billy and Michael for the day known ahead of time. This seems to be common place in every Broadway show that I can think of, up until Billy Elliot. At the very least making it known at the beginning of the day so someone that is in new york and possibly has a desire to see a specific Billy can make that determination of whether or not to buy a ticket or even book a flight if he can know at the beginning of the day when he could practically lets say go to TKTS and buy a ticket, who would be performing that night. Beyond that in the publicity sense you could create draw by for example doing a national search for a new Billy or michael. For example Greese did this when looking for their leads, and Glee has done this in search of a new actor. This would first off possibly generate revenue from the broadcasting stand point, as well as make a national audience aware of the potential Billy's, become involved in the selection process, and get to know them and who they are before they are eventually cast. Then there is now a national awareness of the show, and intrigue to see these performers that have been displayed in a series on television. This is a way to remove the "unknown" cast to the general theatre going public that I mentioned earlier, while if done right could bring in additional revenue by itself.
The Third option would be a move of the show off broadway. Smaller theatre, lower rent, smaller staff, less seats to sell, and the ability to pay actors and crew less money. This would significantly lower costs and make the show possibly (once again if done right) more viable for some time to come.
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ERinVA
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Re: Is the show going to fail now?
The show still has Emily Skinner. She has a considerable fan base, so they haven't completely lost the "star" appeal. But I agree that they are certainly going to need to do something else to remain viable.
Ellen
"I don't want people who want to dance; I want people who have to dance.”
-George Balanchine 1904 -1983
To follow the forum's Twitter at http://twitter.com/BEForum, click on the direct link in Applies to All Forums above.
"I don't want people who want to dance; I want people who have to dance.”
-George Balanchine 1904 -1983
To follow the forum's Twitter at http://twitter.com/BEForum, click on the direct link in Applies to All Forums above.
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CinderellaGal12
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- Joined: Sun Jun 20, 2010 4:29 pm
Re: Is the show going to fail now?
I have to disagree. Though Emily Skinner is well-know in the theater community for her immense talents, she is most certainly not drawing people to come see Billy Elliot. Perhaps a few theater dorks like myself here and there, but she does not a fan base large enough to considerably draw a profit, unlike big-name film and music stars and the rare Sutoon Foster/Patti Lupone.
Profits drop in Broadway shows all the time. The early fall and January/February period are the worst time periods for shows because there are not any school or work breaks, and many people are generally too busy to bring themselves to the theater at that time of year. Billy Elliot is an artistic show with a huge heart. It is not a Phantom of the Opera or Disney show, and therefore is not going to draw huge crowds. But when you take into mind how many people go to see Billy Elliot, which is not truly a big blockbuster show or has any real "stars" in it, you have to recognize that people are drawn in by the story. Will the show run forever? No. Will it reach ten years? Maybe. But it's doing well, above average, really. It does phenomenally in Holiday Seasons, and compared to other theaters and shows in NY, it's doing better than most.
Still, it breaks my heart to even think of it closing anytime....
Profits drop in Broadway shows all the time. The early fall and January/February period are the worst time periods for shows because there are not any school or work breaks, and many people are generally too busy to bring themselves to the theater at that time of year. Billy Elliot is an artistic show with a huge heart. It is not a Phantom of the Opera or Disney show, and therefore is not going to draw huge crowds. But when you take into mind how many people go to see Billy Elliot, which is not truly a big blockbuster show or has any real "stars" in it, you have to recognize that people are drawn in by the story. Will the show run forever? No. Will it reach ten years? Maybe. But it's doing well, above average, really. It does phenomenally in Holiday Seasons, and compared to other theaters and shows in NY, it's doing better than most.
Still, it breaks my heart to even think of it closing anytime....
Re: Is the show going to fail now?
I guess specifically I'm looking at the long term trend. And for example Addams Family is closing in Dec. 31st and BE is only grossing about 90k more. The best thing to compare it to would be maybe Priscilla or Sister Act. Priscilla is doing a little better than BE and SA is doing a little worse. The most telling thing will probably see where the trend is over the next moth or so. The show obviously can't sustain where it is (nor can most shows sustain where they were this week, with the obvious exceptions of BOM and Wicked. I haven't looked recently but BE hasn't been selling tickets past the end of the year. Generally long running shows that are confident sell a year to a year and a half out. And the average on Broadway right now of shows that haven't released that they are closing is selling either through March-June. Of course this doesn't mean that the show is intending to close necessarily, however it is a clear indication that the production company is feeling out the shows future on a shorter term basis. Shows do this from time to time when they are uncertain over contracts or where the show will be financially. For example Anything Goes is only selling tickets through January 2012 (when Foster's contract expires), and the show at least at this time is still Grossing quite well.CinderellaGal12 wrote:I have to disagree. Though Emily Skinner is well-know in the theater community for her immense talents, she is most certainly not drawing people to come see Billy Elliot. Perhaps a few theater dorks like myself here and there, but she does not a fan base large enough to considerably draw a profit, unlike big-name film and music stars and the rare Sutoon Foster/Patti Lupone.
Profits drop in Broadway shows all the time. The early fall and January/February period are the worst time periods for shows because there are not any school or work breaks, and many people are generally too busy to bring themselves to the theater at that time of year. Billy Elliot is an artistic show with a huge heart. It is not a Phantom of the Opera or Disney show, and therefore is not going to draw huge crowds. But when you take into mind how many people go to see Billy Elliot, which is not truly a big blockbuster show or has any real "stars" in it, you have to recognize that people are drawn in by the story. Will the show run forever? No. Will it reach ten years? Maybe. But it's doing well, above average, really. It does phenomenally in Holiday Seasons, and compared to other theaters and shows in NY, it's doing better than most.
Still, it breaks my heart to even think of it closing anytime....
Re: Is the show going to fail now?
Correction: I just looked and BE is selling tickets now through July 1st 2012. So the show must have some idea of either a rally in ticket sales or some good idea of how to generate more public interest.
Re: Is the show going to fail now?
We can speculate; but I just spent an hour trying to buy a ticket online from the Broadway official site; with no luck. If they cannot get that right, the rest is just speculation.
Re: Is the show going to fail now?
Shows that have succeeded do not 'fail'; they rest, awaiting their resurrection.
Maybe BETM needs a break from Broadway. But not the tour.
Maybe BETM needs a break from Broadway. But not the tour.
Re: Is the show going to fail now?
You aren't having success buying the ticket through telecharge? I just tried and was able to get all the way up to the payment screen. Maybe try again? Unless your having problems bringing up telecharge through the BE website? You could just try the direct link if that is the case: https://www.telecharge.com/onlineBoxOff ... rodID=6101kport wrote:We can speculate; but I just spent an hour trying to buy a ticket online from the Broadway official site; with no luck. If they cannot get that right, the rest is just speculation.